Like traditional models for cholera transmission, we considered the number of people who have acquired temporary immunity because they survived the infection. But instead of assuming that V. cholerae decays in the environment after a few weeks, our model assumes that it can not only survive for prolonged periods, but can proliferate in response to environmental factors.
Combined with information about recent pilot vaccinations trials in Haiti, we can estimate the effects that these interventions, as well as any improvements to drinking water and sanitation, will have.Unfortunately, there is little evidence that sanitation systems or access to clean drinking water have improved in Haiti since 2010. Given these conditions, we believe that mass vaccination with oral cholera vaccines might be the only intervention available to stop transmission of the disease.
We are currently investigating how many people would need to be vaccinated, how quickly oral cholera vaccines would need to be administered and how effective the vaccine would need to be in order to halt cholera transmission in Haiti. Our preliminary results suggest that controlling cholera transmission with oral vaccines could be possible in Haiti, but would require significant financial and logistical support from the international community.
Source: The Huffington Post